Forum:2011 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/Yasi
Tropical Cyclone Yasi Seems another one is heading for Australia. Its in the south pacific now, really close to the west edge of this area, so I'll post it here. Anyways, looks like its going to head for the exact spot Anthony is heading. Expected to reach cat 1 strength on its way. Yqt1001 03:36, January 30, 2011 (UTC) It's been named! Now up to Cat 1 on the Australian scale. I hope this doesn't follow Anthony, Queensland could really do without another disaster. HurricaneFiona 11:24, January 30, 2011 (UTC) :Yasi is currently following up behind Anthony, but Yqt, the major problem with this one is, unlike Anthony and Tasha earlier this season, Yasi isn't forecast to just become a 1, it's forecast to hit 120 mph 3 days from now. See the track from Unisys. A category 3 or stronger cyclone spells bad news for Queensland... Just ask Larry of March 2006. Australia's last monster Cyclone was Laurence in December 2009. Lawrence smashed the northern coast of Australia twice as a category 4 storm, causing tremendous damage but fortunately no loss of life. Hopefully Yasi won't be so bad as either of those storms... The other problem is it will pick up speed on the way... Yasi could hit a forward speed of 20 mph by the time it reaches Australia. Ryan1000 14:49, January 30, 2011 (UTC) ::Wow! Once again, the track when I posted this was completely wrong in just 10 hours! Not surprised, when I looked at the shear, it was REALLY LOW in the area Yasi is heading into in a few hours and pretty low well all over the basin, I wouldn't be surprised if it exploded like Bianca, just because of the warmer SSTs in that area. Yqt1001 15:27, January 30, 2011 (UTC) :::If Yasi can pick up enough speed before making landfall, then if we get lucky, we won't have a storm stronger than a three by that time. If Yasi fails to pick up speed, then it could become a category 4 or 5 cyclone by the time it hits. And if that happens, Yasi could be the worst cyclone Queensland has ever seen. I don't want this one to become a monster, but it just appears that Yasi may become a powerful major hurricane soon and wreck up the area around Insfail, like Larry did 5 years ago. Ryan1000 15:34, January 30, 2011 (UTC) ::::Still better then hitting a larger city like Brisbane. Though it could easily be the worst cyclone ever to hit Queensland, especially if it gets up to cat 4 or 5 before landfall. Still doubt that would make the news here. Yqt1001 15:41, January 30, 2011 (UTC) :::Well, the slightest turn in the path can make all the difference between life and death. I don't believe it will hit a big city like Brisbane, and in order to do that, Yasi will have to take a sharp southernly dive like Hamismh in 2008, but not turning back out to sea. However, a medium-sized city like Townsville or Innisfail isn't a good landfall location for a cyclone like Yasi either. Stay tuned on Yasi. He probrably won't be so kind to the residents of that area... Ryan1000 16:01, January 30, 2011 (UTC) Well, now expected to peak at category 4. Not looking too good. Yqt1001 06:03, January 31, 2011 (UTC) :I don't like this thing one bit. It's huge, forecast to strengthen, heading straight for Queensland, is over very warm sea surface temperatures and has been said that it might be "the worst cyclone in Australia's history." I would not like to be in the path of this thing. It's catagory 3 on the Australian scale, as of now. HurricaneFiona 16:37, January 31, 2011 (UTC) ::I don't like the looks of Yasi either. There are fears that it could be the worst cyclone in the history of Queensland, but in the entire country? Cyclone Mahina of 1899 hit bathurst bay in Queensland in that year. It caused an unconfirmed storm surge estimated to be 40 feet high, and was ranked as a category 5 cyclone. It killed 400 people in Queensland, making it the deadliest natural disaster in Australian history. Yasi isn't currently forecast to become a 5, but it isn't out of the question at all... And I highly doubt Yasi will kill 400 or so people. Australia is like Mexico for cyclones. They are very well prepared, and high death tolls are uncommon there. The Unisys track keeps on changing, and now Yasi is expected to become a powerful category 4 cyclone, with winds of up to 145 mph. It is currently forecast to head in the same direction as Larry, but a little further south, between Innisfail and Townsville. Innisfail was smashed up by Larry in 2006, but the big problem with Yasi is, as I mentioned earlier, the slightest turn can mean the difference between life and death. Innisfail and Townsville are the main two cities in Jeopardy from Yasi. Innisfail was hit hard by Larry in 2006, but in 2006, and up to today, only 6 or 7 thousand people live there. It isn't a giant city, and Larry, despite the damage there, could have been much worse if it hit Townsville which, on the other hand, is Australia's largest metropolitan area north of the sunshine coast. Up to 190,000 people live in Townsville, which is nearly 30 times as much as Innisfail. 30 times as much! I shudder and fear of what Queensland will look like this Wensday. Yasi is currently forecast to hit north of the Townsville area, but if it manages to veer farther south of it's predicted path, then Townsville could look the same way Innisfail did in March 2006, and I do not want to see that happen. Even so, Yasi will likely be much worse than Larry because it is much, much, much larger. Larry was a Charley-like cyclone for Queensland. This storm could be a Katrina or Wilma-like storm for Queensland. Larry was 60 or so miles across. Yasi is currently 300 miles across and it's still getting bigger. This could be the worst cyclone Queensland has ever seen. Even if it does miss Townsville to the north, that will just make things worse because unlike northern hemisphere storms, this storm is spinning clockwise. Therefore, this monster storm will do it's worst in the bottom-left quadrant of it's landfall location, the opposite of the upper-right quadrant that we are used to seeing with northern hemisphere storms. This thing is not looking good at all. You can see this news article from ABC to see just how massive and powerful Yasi is. Hopefully the people in Queensland are getting out by now... Ryan1000 21:42, January 31, 2011 (UTC) AAAND, now a major. Third of the year, expected to slow down prior to landfall and during landfall, keeps getting worse and worse for Queensland. Expected to make landfall just north of Innisfail, not looking too good at all. Look slike a Larry repeat after all Yqt1001 03:02, February 1, 2011 (UTC) Reached Catagory 4. What are the chances of this thing reaching catagory 5 before landfall? HurricaneFiona 16:42, February 1, 2011 (UTC) :I'm thinking pretty good, because. 1) VERY very low wind shear, 2) no land interaction, 3) most of Yasi is still over very warm SSTs, 4) Developed an eye, finally, so I would think it could become a cat 5, I wouldnt be too surprised, it has 140mph winds, still a day or two from landfall anything is possible especially if it hasnt touched land yet. (also every day it has jumped up one category)Yqt1001 17:33, February 1, 2011 (UTC) ::Winds now up to 150mph..looking pretty impressive, and deadly. Yqt1001 22:43, February 1, 2011 (UTC) :Not at all is isn't good for the people there. My fear on Yasi is that it's track will kepp on shifting further south and it does end up just north of the Townsville area. I'm expecting Yasi to hit south of where Larry did, and per that Innisfail should get off easy for the storm surge. It is expected to have a storm surge up to 4 meters high, or higher. Yasi has a very good chance to hit category 5 before it's landfall by tomorrow. My worst fear is that it does end up making landfall just north of Townsville and does end up delivering the worst of it's up to 20 foot storm surge there. Queensland is gonna have a helluva ride tommorow evening. There are mandatory evacuations for parts of the state, particularly the area around Townsville, where the worst of the surge is expected to hit. Hopefully the evacuations will signifigantly limit the loss of life. Brace yourselves, Aussie. Here she comes! Ryan1000 23:13, February 1, 2011 (UTC) ::And... it is upgraded to a category 5 on the Australian scale now. Yasi is a downright massive monster. This 400 mile wide armageddon cyclone will crush everything in it's path. However, it isn't a category 5 on our scale yet, but that isn't out of the question... Yasi will hit tomorrow night, and it could bring with it a storm surge of over 20 feet and winds that could be in excess of 155 mph. Yasi will hit between Innisfail and Cairns; Townsville may have appeared to have lucked out, but Yasi will destroy any poorly-built structures in the area it does hit nontheless. Yasi is also going to bring it's worst surge south of it's landfall location. Townsville isn't out of the woods yet, but there's reason to be optimistic based on Yasi's current track. It's strongest winds are also a threat; the problem with Yasi's strongest winds is that they are behind the circulation, so if these people think it will be gone by then, they'll need to think again. Hopefully everyone has been evacuated today... Ryan1000 01:30, February 2, 2011 (UTC) Eye has now made landfall, wow Yasi is huuuge! 155 mph winds, 5mph off of Cat 5 in the Atlantic scale. Made landfall just south of Innisfail, but Townsville-Cairns will be affected, however pretty much Mackay-most northern point of Australia is being hit by it. I dont think the outcome will be good at all, Yasi is just a massive storm ready to rampage down on a long, relatively populated stretch of land. Yqt1001 15:45, February 2, 2011 (UTC) :Well, Yasi was a category 5 on Australia's standard's, but the problem is, even though the storm made landfall south of Innisfail, that spelled bad news for the people of the city of Townsville. Although Yasi missed them to the north, that just made the city bear the brunt of Yasi's massive 30-foot storm surge. That's higher than Katrina's, even. Yasi spared Innisfail from the storm surge because it missed them to the south, but they had to suffer the full force of Yasi's winds and heaviest rains. Yasi is likely to be a huge multi-billion dollar storm. I'm going to be updating the part I made on Yasi in the "Retirements at a Glance" section very soon. Hopefully the loss of life has been really low, if none, in the area it made landfall. This thing should be dying out very rapidly by now. Ryan1000 21:28, February 2, 2011 (UTC) No deaths have been reported so far, thank God. The Govenment really did a good job there, getting most people to evacuate. We don't know the damage figures yet, but in terms of loss of life, this wasn't as bad as it could've been. HurricaneFiona 16:16, February 3, 2011 (UTC) :Well, I wasn't expecting a severe death toll from Yasi. As I mentioned, Australia is very well prepared for hurricanes, and they know how to save people there from these storms. It has been a long time since a cyclone was deadly for Australia (Tracy). However, Yasi's enormus storm surge and long-lasting winds had made it far costlier than her. Currently the initial reports are 3.5 billion, and because it is only a day after it's landfall, it's most likely way too low of an estimate. Tracy caused 4 billion in today's dollars, but it was a very small storm and was extremly lucky to hit Darwin on Christmas day in 1974. It was the second deadliest cyclone in Australian history, with 71 people dead after the storm passed. Ryan1000 21:15, February 3, 2011 (UTC) Yasi has lost all its tropical characteristics. I would also expect way more damage then 3.5bill, but an accurate damage amount might not come for a while (ex. Mitch) Yqt1001 23:13, February 3, 2011 (UTC) :Even so, Yasi, despite the tremendous damages, was responsible for only one death(indirectly) on it's path through Australia. This storm may have been Queensland's worst cyclone in history, but the death toll was surprisingly low in the area Yasi hit. It more than certainly will become retired; Yqt and Fiona, the "retirements at a glance" section is open for retirement calls if you want to make some on this forum's storms. Although it's pretty clear Yasi is the only one that is definitely going out.Ryan1000 21:18, February 4, 2011 (UTC)